NASCAR

TODD WARSHAW FOR NASCAR

Winners of three consecutive Sprint Cup championships, the No. 48 team leads this year's preseason rankings.

Predicting the top teams

The No. 48 team heads That's Racin's 2009 preseason rankings

BY DAVID POOLE

McClatchy Newspapers

If you're looking for a surprise at the top of That's Racin's 2009 preseason rankings, you're going to be disappointed. Jimmie Johnson's No. 48 Chevrolet team starts the new season right where it has ended the past three, right at the top of the list.

It's possible, we suppose, to make an argument for picking someone else to win the 2009 Sprint Cup championship. There are other teams that, without question, are capable of winning the title, and it's reasonable to wonder when the team might face some misfortune in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

But if you're ranking the teams in terms of how they stack up when the new year begins, it's clear that the No. 48 team is the one everybody has to look to beat.

Though these preseason rankings are designed to be a snapshot of how we think the teams stack up as the season begins - and not necessarily how they will finish, the 12 teams ranked in the first 12 spots are the ones we think will make this year's Chase.

One more thing. This year, we're only going to rank 35 teams after each points race. There simply aren't 40 full-time teams, at least as the season begins.

So here are the top teams for the 2009 Sprint Cup season, ranked in terms of their perceived potential for success.

1. Jimmie Johnson (car No. 48): Career average finish of 11.5 in 252 starts. So when he's average, he's still darn good. Final 2008 ranking: 1.

2. Carl Edwards (car No. 99): Only Johnson has more wins (26) than Edwards' 16 in Edwards' four full seasons. Final 2008 ranking: 2.

3. Kevin Harvick (car No. 29): No victories in 2008, but this team had 14 top-10 finishes in last year's final 18 races. Final 2008 ranking: 5.

4. Kyle Busch (car No. 18): Might not win as much early on as last year. Hopefully won't stumble as much later. Final 2008 ranking: 4.

JEFF SINER/MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS

Kevin Harvick and the No. 29 team had 14 top-10 finishes in 2008.

5. Greg Biffle (car No. 16): He's got Nationwide and Truck titles and he has showed he's a threat for the sweep. Final 2008 ranking: 3.

6. Jeff Gordon (car No. 24): It's been 41 races since Gordon has won. That only seems high because it's Gordon. Final 2008 ranking: 11.

7. Jeff Burton (car No. 31): Burton was the oldest to win a race in 2008 - the third straight year he's done that. Final 2008 ranking: 6.

8. Matt Kenseth (car No. 17): Seeking a rebound after what was in every way measurable a down year for this team. Final 2008 ranking: 12.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (car No. 88): If this team is going to get to a championship level it's time for it to start that climb. Final 2008 ranking: 10.

10. Denny Hamlin (car No. 11): Some expect this team to falter and maybe even fall out of the Chase in '09. Not us. Final 2008 ranking: 8.

11. Tony Stewart (car No. 20): Is Stewart's driving ability enough to carry this team into the sport's top tier? Yep. Final 2008 ranking: NR.

12. Kasey Kahne (car No. 9): Kasey Kahne (car No. 9): No Dodge team made the Chase in 2008. We think Kahne will find a way in 2009. Final 2008 ranking: 14.

13. Mark Martin(car No. 5): Martin making the Chase and contending for a title at age 50 would be a great story. Final 2008

14. David Ragan (car No. 6): A trendy pick for a breakout year. We don't argue, but the top 12 is tough to crack. Final 2008 ranking: 13.

15. Brian Vickers (car No. 83): It was tempting to rate this team as a surprise Chase pick. Just wanted that on the record. Final 2008 ranking: 20.

Mcmurray

16. Jamie McMurray (car No. 26): Expectations up after 2008 finish. Can this muster a season's worth of consistency? Final 2008 ranking: 15.

17. Juan Pablo Montoya (car No. 42): If a switch to Chevrolet means better cars, Montoya could be this season's big surprise. Final 2008 ranking: 22.

18. Martin Truex Jr. (car No. 1): Way too much stuff was swirling around this team for it to reach its potential in 2008. Final 2008 ranking: 19.

19. Clint Bowyer (car No. 07): Bowyer finished in the top five for the past two years but this is a new team in the Childress stable. Final 2008 ranking: NR.

20. Kurt Busch (car No. 2): If Penske Racing pulls its act together this forecast finish might well be way too low. Final 2008 ranking: 16.

For the rest of the top-40 rankings, go online and visit www.thatsracin.com

New Ford engine won't be raced soon

Where: Daytona International Speedway, a 2.5-mile highly banked quad-oval located in Daytona Beach, Fla.

When: Saturday at 8 p.m. (all times ET).

TV:FOX

Radio:Motor Racing Network.

Last year's winner:Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Worth mentioning:The race will have two segments of 25 and 50 laps. Both green- and yellow-flag laps will count. Between segments, there will be a 10-minute pit stop at which time teams will pit and may elect to change tires, add fuel and make normal chassis adjustments. Crews will be permitted to work on cars and will be allowed to perform functions they would do on a normal pit stop. All work must be performed on pit road or in the garage and the changing of springs, shock absorbers or rear-ends will not be permitted.

THIS WEEK'S QUESTION

With fewer full-time Cup teams, would now be a good time for NASCAR to put the top - 35 rule on hold or scrap it altogether?

Cast your vote at: www.thatsracin.com

LAST WEEK'S QUESTION

Which Chevrolet team will have the most success in the 2009 Cup season?

Number of votes: 4,900

Response	No. of votes	Percent
Hendrick Motorsports	3,354	68%
Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing	617	13%
Richard Childress Racing	467	10%
Stewart-Haas Racing	462	9%

TV ad buyers hitting the brakes on NASCAR

Advertising sales for NASCAR's seasonopening Daytona 500 on Feb. 15 appear to be on par, Fox Sports tells Street & Smith's Sports Business Journal, but projections for the first two quarters of 2008 are about 25 percent below last year's level.

A Fox source told the publication the network is still asking $550,000 for 30-second spots, which it got for last year's season-opening Sprint Cup race. But several other sources put rates in the $350,000 to $450,000 range, according to the report on the Sports Business Journal site. Additionally, one source said, Daytona 500 spots at the higher rates include additional placement in prerace and postrace shows.

Rates for 30-second spots during other Cup races on Fox are down marginally, the Street & Smith account said, and are in the $75,000 to $125,000 range.

Fox carries the first 13 Cup races of the season.

- ThatsRacin.com report

Kvapil, Yates team get Daytona 500 sponsor

Travis Kvapil and the No. 28 Fords of Yates Racing have picked up sponsorship for the Daytona 500, the team said Tuesday.

Kvapil

The Golden Corral restaurant chain will sponsor Kvapil, the 2003 Truck series champion. The Janesville, Wis., driver has recorded six top-10 finishes and one pole - October at Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway - at the Cup level.

"I can't wait to get back down to Daytona," the driver said. "It's been a long off season without any testing."

The sponsor's colors will be on the car in Daytona 500 practice and qualifying this weekend.

- ThatsRacin.com report

At what point does point-swapping get too silly?

I've been a supporter of NASCAR's top-35 rule since its inception. I think it's a fair way to make it more likely the teams that commit to running a full schedule are protected from missing races because of the vagaries of qualifying.

That's not a very popular position among some fans, who're under the incorrect impression that putting only the fastest 43 cars each week is the best way to run the NASCAR railroad. It has never been done that way in this sport, not for any significant period of time, and it never should be in my mind.

But the top-35 rule is hard to defend when NASCAR allows the kind of gymnastics that seems to be going on with owner points this offseason.

It's reasonable for there to be an orderly way for teams to transfer points when it changes drivers.

It's fine with me if Yates Racing wants to take the points earned by David Gilliland and Travis Kvapil last year and give them to Bobby Labonte and Paul Menard - as long as Yates Racing has the same number of top-35 spots for this year as it earned last year.

If Richard Childress Racing wants to start a fourth team, that's fine. But RCR had three teams in the top 35 last year and that's how many should start in it this year. If Childress wants to put Casey Mears with the No. 07 team and have Clint Bowyer go to the new team, that's fine. But Bowyer needs to go hard in the first five races to get into this year's top 35 and not get an exemption through some

kind of elaborate deal.

It doesn't look as if we're going to have a Daytona 500 entry list until Friday, and according to Bob Pockrass of SceneDaily.com, a lot of stuff will be going on up until the last minute.

Pockrass says somehow Phoenix Racing has secured a top-35 spot for Brad Keselowski in the No. 09 Chevrolet. Apparently that comes from one of the total of six slots Dale Earnhardt Inc. (four) and Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates (two) had at the end of last year and now control as the merged Earnhardt-Ganassi team.

Teams aren't supposed to be allowed to have a financial interest in more than four teams. You can field a fifth car for someone who plans to run as a rookie the following year, but the plan supposedly was for Keselowski to run seven races - the maximum allowed for such a prospect - in a

fifth Hendrick Motorsports car.

Then came word Keselowski was going to run 10 more for Phoenix. So he's a rookie in training for two teams? And he's going to run Daytona with an "affiliation" with Earnhardt- Ganassi, supposedly, even though we all know he's in the Hendrick pipeline?

Keselowski

Pockrass also says teams are sniffing around trying to "buy" the points earned by the now-defunct No. 22 team at Bill Davis Racing. The assets of that team were bought by people who're keeping the engine-building part of the company going, but they're not racing the No. 22 car. That should be that. If points aren't for sale, then don't let them be sold.

If Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing wants to run John Andretti in a fourth car with the points from the 15 car last year, that's OK. Earnhardt-Ganassi should have four spots because they had six and four is the maximum for one team.

That means the points from the No. 22, the No. 01 and No. 41 cars from last year should be out of the picture, period. That would put Marcos Ambrose in the No. 47 (with Michael McDowell's points), A.J. Allmendinger in the No. 44 (with the No. 10's points) and Sam Hornish Jr. in the No. 77 in the top 35 to start the season. And that should absolutely be that.

Originally posted on David Poole's blog, "Life in the Turn Lane," available online at turn-lane.blogspot.com.