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Six things to ponder
Emerging storylines to think about during the bye week

BY DAVID POOLE
McClatchy Newspapers

 

The season's first off weekend for Sprint Cup teams comes after just four races, but that doesn't mean we haven't already learned some things about the 2009 season. Here's a six-pack of things at least worth thinking about:

1. Jimmie Johnson is 'struggling'

Jimmie Johnson has finished 31st, ninth, 24th and ninth in the first four races and is 13th the standings so far. That's not awful, but it's certainly not up to the three-time defending Cup champion's standards.

But while it is true that Johnson has had some spectacular early-season results in his career, it's also true that last year he had 13th after four races last year with 467 points. He has only 10 fewer points than that this year.

2. Clint Bowyer is underappreciated

The preseason tea leaves all pointed toward this being a transitional year for Bowyer. After making the Chase the past two years, he moved from the No. 07 to a new No. 33 team at Richard Childress Racing with a crew chief new to Sprint Cup, Shane Wilson, and a new team.

Bowyer

Yet here we are four races in and Bowyer is second in points looking very, very solid. His worst finish was 19th at California on a day when all of the RCR cars struggled badly and he had the best day on the team. His other finishes are fourth, second and sixth.

3. It IS how you start

People have caught on to how important a good start is in the Chase format, but right here is where you first read about that. We noticed it two years ago and the trends have not changed.

Kenseth

Of the 54 drivers who've made the Chase in its first five years, 50 have been in the top 20 after four races. Forty-four have been in the top 15. And 72 percent, 39 of 54, were in Chase position after four races (the top 10 in 2004-06 or the top 12 the past two years).

The four drivers in five years who have come from outside the top 20 after four races to make the Chase were Matt Kenseth and Jeremy Mayfield in 2005, Kevin Harvick in 2006 and Martin Truex Jr. in 2007.

4. Mark Martin is in a deep hole

Blown engines at California and Las Vegas and a blown tire at Atlanta have

JEFF SINER/MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is 24th in the Sprint Cup points standings after four races.
COURTESY OF NASCAR
Mark Martin and the No. 5 team have had a rough start to the season.

Mark Martin in some trouble. He's 35th in car owner points with just one race left before this year's standings start determining who has to get in on time.

A lot was expected out of Martin in the No. 5 Hendrick Motorpsorts ride. If he does turn things around and somehow comes from 34th in the driver standings to make the Chase, it would be historic.

Kenseth had 339 points after four races in 2005 and still came back to make the top 10. No driver has made the Chase with a lower four-race points tally. Martin has just 286 points so far this year.

5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. might not be that bad off

Earnhardt's team has made mistakes and has had some bad luck, but NASCAR's loop data suggests the No. 88 car is running better than it's finishing.

Earnhardt is 24th in the standings after four races, but he's 15th in average running position and driver rating and, perhaps most interestingly, third in a statistic called "fastest late in a run."

That ranks drivers based on their lap speeds in the last 25 percent of laps run since a pit stop. That means the No. 88 car has been pretty solid on long runs, which is something every team tries to shoot for everyone.

6. There's (a little) more for

There has been a lot of talk about there being more parity in Cup so far this season and the statistics bear that out - but only marginally.

Fourteen different drivers have had top-five finishes so far this year. That's the highest total in the past five seasons, but only by one over the 13 we had in 2008 and 2006. There have been 24 different drivers with top-10 finishes so far. In three of the past four years that number through four races has been 23. It was also 24 back in 2006.

On the other hand, if you take the average points total for each multicar team that has more than one car to make each of the season's first four races, things are still pretty tight:


 Team Avg. points 
 Richard Childress Racing 484
 Roush Fenway Racing 480 480
 Hendrick Motorsports 444
 Joe Gibbs Racing 440
 Penske Racing 437
 Michael Waltrip Racing 423
 Richard Petty Motorsports 423
 Stewart-Haas Racing 423
 Red Bull Racing 367
 Earnhardt Ganassi Racing 349
 Yates Racing 326

THAT'S RACIN'S TOP PICKS

1. Jeff Gordon (car No. 24): There is a renewed fire in his eye. Win(s) are obviously on the way for this team. Last week: 3.

2. Kyle Busch (car No. 18): Not this team's finest moment at Atlanta. Hey, at least a member of the family won. Last week: 1.

3. Kevin Harvick (car No. 29): One of several drivers to get a good finish after falling two laps down at Atlanta. Last week: 6.

4. Matt Kenseth (car No. 17): Two wins and two not-so-hot runs so far. But hey, a .500 batting average is good. Last week: 2.

5. Clint Bowyer (car No. 33): This guy is as underestimated as some other drivers are overestimated these days. Last week: 5.

6. Carl Edwards (car No. 99): Third place with late two-tire stop at Atlanta was about as good as he could've done. Last week: 7.

7. Kurt Busch (car No. 2): This team was stronger than cat food in its dominant victory at Atlanta. Last week: 13.

8. Tony Stewart (car No. 14): Also rallied from two down at Atlanta. How long before he gets first win as owner? Last week: 8.

9. Greg Biffle (car No. 16): Maybe doing the tire test when it was much colder at Atlanta threw this team a curve. Last week: 4.

Jimmie Johnson (car No. 48): Late-race pit road speeding penalty put this team in a hole with no time to dig out. Last week: 9.


For the rest of the top-40 rankings, go online and visit www.thatsracin.com
Can Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 team can turn around their lackluster start and contend for a fourth-straight title?
Cast your vote at: www.thatsracin.com
LAST WEEK'S QUESTION
The race is in Las Vegas and the No. 17 team is on a roll. Would you bet on Matt Kenseth making it three in a row?
Number of votes: 462

  Response No. of votes Percent
  He'll run OK, but the Chase isn't a reasonable expectation 250 56%
  You bet. He can still get it done 158 35%
  No way 41 9%

 

Kurt Busch: He's back and driving backward. Somehow that seems appropriate.
Kyle Busch: Still winning in everything he gets in.
Jeff Gordon: Strong start to the season but don't think for a minute he wouldn't rather have a win.
Mark Martin: One wonders if he has any kind of luck this season.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: In danger of another season becoming one of woulda, shoulda, coulda.
The 2009 Sprint Cup rookie class: No one is higher than 33rd in points.
- Jim Utter
SPRINT CUP POINTS LEADERS
The top-40 drivers as of March. 8:
 Rank/Driver      Points  Rank/Driver  Points
1. Jeff Gordon . 634
2. Clint Bowyer . 91
3. Kurt Busch . 588
4. Carl Edwards . 547
5. Matt Kenseth . 546
6. Tony Stewart . 521
7. Kyle Busch . 514
8. Kevin Harvick . 511
9. Kasey Kahne . 484
10.Greg Biffle . 480
11. Brian Vickers . 477
12.David Reutimann . 475
13.Jimmie Johnson . 457
14.Denny Hamlin . 456
15.Jeff Burton . 437
16.Michael Waltrip . 434
17.Elliott Sadler . 427
18.Jamie McMurray . 423
19.Martin Truex Jr. 423
20.A.J. Allmendinger . 417
21.Juan Montoya . 408
22.David Ragan . 405
23.Bobby Labonte . 403
24.Dale Earnhardt Jr. 397
25.Casey Mears . 397
26.David Stremme . 396
27.Reed Sorenson . 363
28.Marcos Ambrose . 361
29.Robby Gordon . 342
30.John Andretti . 336
31.Sam Hornish Jr. 328
32.Ryan Newman . 324
33.Joey Logano . 321
34.Mark Martin . 286
35.Aric Almirola . 277
36.David Gilliland . 276
37.Scott Speed . 256
38.Paul Menard . 238
39.Regan Smith . 206
40.Travis Kvapil . 183

NATIONWIDE SERIES POINTS LEADERS
The top-20 drivers as of Feb. 28:
 Rank/Driver      Points  Rank/Driver  Points
1. Carl Edwards . 515
2. Brian Vickers . 467
3. Greg Biffle . 416
4. Brendan Gaughan. 407
5. Kyle Busch . 406
6. David Ragan . 387
7. Kevin Harvick . 386
8. Jason Leffler . 354
9. Jason Keller . 343
10.Michael McDowell . 326
11. Justin Allgaier . 311
12.Kenny Wallace . 311
13. Mike Bliss . 305
14. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 301
15. Scott Lagasse Jr. 299
16. Jeff Burton . 289
17.Tony Raines . 288
18. Joe Nemechek . 285
19.Morgan Shepherd . 276
20.David Reutimann. . 273

NEXT RACE: March 21, Scotts Turf Builder 300, Bristol, Tenn.

TRUCK SERIES POINTS LEADERS
The top-10 drivers as of March. 7:
 Rank/Driver      Points  Rank/Driver  Points
1. Kyle Busch . 560
2. Todd Bodine . 535
3. Mike Skinner . 441
4. Ron Hornaday . 436
5. Chad McCumbee . 426
6. Matt Crafton . 423
7. Terry Cook . 413
8. T.J. Bell . 412
9. Timothy Peters . 406
10.David Starr . 384

NEXT RACE: March 28, Kroger 250, Martinsville, Va.
Track attendance is an issue - and Bruton Smith knows it

Bruton Smith blew into the media center last Friday at Atlanta Motor Speedway and held court with reporters for quite a while. The military would call this a diversionary tactic.

I drifted in and out of the gaggle, making sure I wasn't missing Smith plowing any new ground. He talked about how NASCAR should take the final race of the Sprint Cup season away from Homestead - or, as he likes to call it, Homeinstead - and move it back to Atlanta or out to Las Vegas. He talked about how the Cup banquet should be in Las Vegas and not New York. He talked about a lot of stuff.

I didn't write about any of it (until now, I guess) because it wasn't anything I hadn't heard before and because I had a good idea what he was up to.

For weeks leading up to Sunday's Kobalt Tools 500, there had been whispers all around the sport about how few

tickets had been sold for the race at the 1.54-mile track located south of downtown Atlanta. The weather was perfect and there was a huge walk-up crowd (when compared with other years), and they still might have sold half the seats.

If Atlanta Motor Speedway had 75,000 or so, which is where I would put the crowd I saw (NASCAR's estimate of 94,000 on the official race report was way high), that's still more fans than there would be at a sold-out Homstead-Miami Speedway. It's about what California had, maybe a little less, and about what places like Kansas and Chicagoland will hold later this year.

I say that people who see the stands half-empty at Atlanta and think the crowd is "terrible" need to keep in perspective that 75,000 for any professional sports event in the Atlanta market is not shabby. But it's not good, either.

Smith keeps insisting that the track will sell out its second date this year, which moves to Sunday night of Labor Day weekend. People at the track say they're encouraged by the response to that new date, moved back from around Halloween weekend in previous years.

We'll see.

This ain't Bruton Smith's first rodeo. By chumming the waters with talk about how NASCAR ought to do this and that with other races at other places he got some of the heat off of his track at Atlanta, at least for a little while, over the weekend. But he's smart enough to

know that nobody's going to have their attention fully diverted from how many seats went unsold Sunday - at least not for long.

Smith would like to have a second race in Las Vegas, and he's promised up and down that he'll bring Cup racing to the track he bought in Kentucky last year. He might be singing the song that one of those dates "should" come from one of International Speedway Corp.'s tracks, but he knows as well as I do that's not going to happen.

If Kentucky gets a date next year, Smith will put it there from within the Speedway Motorsports portfolio. And after seeing the crowd Sunday at Atlanta, that track has a great big target locked on it, no matter how many countermeasures Smith tries to deploy.

Originally posted on David Poole's blog, "Life in the Turn Lane," available online at turn-lane.blogspot.com.

JOHNNY CRAWFORD/ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION/MCT
A large number of seats remained empty in the grandstand during the Kobalt Tools 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.